Agile
Are We Really Bad at Estimating? (via Mountain Goat Software)
- We’re good at estimating tasks we’re familiar with (e.g., commuting, cleaning the house).
- Suppose a project will take 1000 hours, but you won’t know that until the project is done. If you promise 500 hours but it takes 1500 hours, people are upset that it took longer. If you say 1500 hours, the project may never start.
- Tip: Use probabilities instead of fixed-point estimates (e.g.,” I’m 90% confident I can complete this task in 2-7 days” vs. “I can complete this task in 4 days”).
- Tip: Use feedback to learn about your estimation abilities. (I think this would be more helpful if the type of work a team does is fairly narrow in scope, so that over time they start to work on tasks similar to ones completed prior.)
- I was reminded of this Freakonomics Radio episode about big infrastructure projects, the planning fallacy, and optimism bias.
Business
When It’s Time to Pivot, What’s Your Story? (via Harvard Business Review)
Startups often find too narrow of a reason for existing, which leaves them very little space to pivot without being wishy-washy and confusing investors and current/potential customers. Focus more on the broader “why,” realizing the “how” is likely to change.
Civics
Election 2020: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
- In 2018 a judge lifted the order stopping the Republican National Convention promoting groups from patrolling polling places and harassing voters (https://www.npr.org/2018/01/09/576858203/decades-old-consent-decree-lifted-against-rncs-ballot-security-measures).
- Latino and Black voters are the groups most often affected by polling restrictions (e.g., availability of polling paces), and they typically don’t vote Republican.
- Associated Press poll: 57% of Trump supporters say they’ll vote in person on Nov 3; 53% of Biden supports will vote by mail.
- Multiple studies have proven that mail-in fraud is statistically zero, yet Attorney General William Barr is making statements that fraud is inevitable and “will take the country to a dark place.”
- Many of Trump’s claims about mail-in ballot fraud during the first 2020 presidential debate have since been disproven.
- Over 558 thousand ballots were rejected in the primaries. Signature-matching is difficult because no two signatures are identical and vary over time. Not all states inform voters that their ballots were rejected.
- Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are not allowed to start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day. Because in-person votes (i.e., the majority of Trump voters) are counted faster, there could be a reporting problem where any votes counted after Election Day will be spun as fraudulent.
- The governor of Texas is attempting to limit drop-off locations to one per county, despite some counties having ~200 registered voters and others having ~4 million. (https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/02/texas-greg-abbott-ballot-drop-lawsuit/)
- 46 states have an online ballot tracking system.
Culture
How Businesses Can Recruit and Develop More Young People of Color (via Harvard Business Review)
- Start professional development early
- Increase access to technology
- Improve hiring practices
Ethics
A New Model for Ethical Leadership (via Harvard Business Review)
- Even if you optimize for maximum utility, you get into weird territories (e.g., should a self-driving car choose to injure the driver to save five pedestrians). These equations likely have no solution because to optimize for one trait, you inherently sub-optimize for others.
- It’s best to compare options to one another instead of looking at them individually.
- Although not specifically mentioned, moral licensure comes to mind. In this concept, you’re willing to allow some lapses because you’ve made gains in other areas (e.g., it’s okay to eat a burger because you’re having a diet soda with it).
Leadership
This week our book club finished chapter 8 of “Radical Candor”. Topics included debate vs. decision meetings, all-hands meetings, meeting-free zones, walking around, and culture consciousness.
5 Strategies to Support Your Employees Through a Crisis (via Harvard Business Review)
I’d argue these are good strategies even if you’re not dealing with a crisis.
- Show appreciation
- Provide individualized support
- Involve employees in decision making
- Entrust employees with new responsibilities
- Designate time and space for team bonding
Process
Put Your Metrics Where Your Mouth Is (via Harvard Business Review)
Most companies have a handful of key performance indicators (KPIs) that pertain to shareholders and employees. If your business has specific areas that are critical (e.g., supplier relations), ensure that you have metrics around those as well.
To Succeed in a Negotiation, Help Your Counterpart Save Face (via Harvard Business Review)
- The short summary is that those that enter negotiations like to lose; so, find a way where the “loser” can save face.
- (1) Recognize the critical role face plays in all negotiations. (2) Ask yourself if the solution being proposed will cause a loss of face for any party. If so, that has to be addressed, or the answer to any proposal will be no. (3) Map out all the players involved in the negotiation, and recognize that saving face will be even more important if a negotiator has to take a solution back to certain constituents. (4) When a hidden problem arises in negotiation – one that is hard to grasp or does not seem to make logical sense — think about face as the source.
Technology
Robots Save Us Time — But Do They Make Us Happier? (via Harvard Business Review)
- Consumers feel guilty if their products seem too human-like
- Consumers worry that using autonomous products makes them seem lazy
Computer Simulations Are Better — and More Affordable — than Ever (via Harvard Business Review)
The capability of “digital twins” (i.e., computer-simulated models of production lines, equipment, etc.) is considerably cheaper and more available than it was two decades ago. It can help with operations and planning design, process improvement through low-cost what-if experiments, closer design and manufacturing collaboration, training, and communications and marketing.